Is there an upturn in the market up ahead?
Category Blog
There is no question that the residential property market is ready for an upturn. But, is it likely to happen now? Or soon? Or middle of next year? And, when it happens, will it be a strong bounce back? My personal response to these questions is a guarded positive.
Not least so because home prices in Johannesburg/Sandton are truly the cheapest, right now, that I've experienced in my three decades in real estate.
And hopefully interest rates have stabilized and peaked. This alone could bring buyers back house hunting.
History shows us that when people feel that the market has turned it has actually turned 4 to 6 months previously.
Home buyers generally invest with a medium-to-long-term perspective. Sellers, on the other hand, have short-to-medium-term needs, and therefore seek a quicker return. Could they do better by selling at current low market prices and investing the proceeds at interest rates ranging from 10 to 15 per cent?
Is it all about the money?
My answer is yes. In the current market, some medium-risk investment portfolios are achieving double-digit returns.Whichever way you look at the current homes market scenario, it raises an interesting debate.
Cash-flush banks
Consider that the banks are sitting with a lot of cash at the moment - a great deal of which could conceivably flow into the residential property market as 'wait-and-see' buyers become more and more confident and take the plunge. If the market stabilises as a result of some fresh and positive socio-economic and/or political factors in the new year and the reducing load shedding schedule, sentiment will improve. Then the already numerous home buy bargains currently on offer will start to be absorbed.
Banks are lending generously, knowing the property market has bottomed and a gentle up trend could start. Followed by a stronger demand later.
Many areas around the country are already in healthy positive territory. The western Cape, coastal areas and areas close to the game reserves are experiencing positive growth.
The pendulum swings
People who aren't going anywhere, and have committed to South Africa, should absolutely do their best to buy in this market - now or soon - not least because the pendulum always swings. On the flipside, restless sellers should accept the knock, take the money, and make it up on the investment market.
The bottom line is that the homes market remains lodged in a distinctly tough environment in which price aspirations of buyers and sellers - not to mention agents - should be tailored to suit the conditions. Good opportunities still exist right now to buy at an appealing price discount. Buyers who ferret out, or stumble across, the home that suits their needs and lifestyle could do well by seizing the opportunity while it lasts.
Author: Ronald Ennik
