My opinion piece 5 years ago...

"Election 2014 could have a positive outcome for the South African residential property market. The results at the polls may well turn out to be the medicine so badly needed to put back on track a government leadership that needs to embrace the integrity that has both anchored and driven the ANC for the past 100 years.

If it does, the post-election improvement in governance - particularly on the corruption front - will do wonders for economic sentiment - (and, not least, help sustain the current uptick in residential property sales). Curbing corruption should top the post-election priority list of both the Cabinet and the ANC. If the correct remedial action is taken, the resultant improvement in confidence and sentiment will add welcome impetus to the homes market."

This was my word-for-word wish for the homes market immediately prior to South Africa's last national election five years ago. It didn't come about. Unfortunately, it seems that very little has changed since then as our country now counts down to the 2019 election.

A darker cloud

In fact, history seems poised to repeat itself - under a now darker cloud of uncertainty than prevailed prior to the 2014 election. Business confidence has slipped to its lowest level this year on the back of this persistent uncertainty and lack of remedial action. And the homes market has not escaped the concomitant dampening impact on buy/sell sentiment.

It would be a sad day indeed if now, five years down the line, I end up making the same wish again - but this time from a deeper, darker hole. The ruling party needs to sort out its internal differences - with particular emphasis on the integrity aspect of governance. It is high time that the "good guys" begin to prevail.

A need to know

Clarity on that point may well manifest only a few months after the election results roll out. The property market needs to know that President Ramaphosa will be there to stay. The ANC's (seemingly split) engine room, the NEC, will be at the core of the process. In the recent past, the party has appeared unified in its failure to tackle corruption. Where were the 'good guys' out in front and fighting to bring the party back on track? On the face of it, nobody had any leverage. Unlike luxury goods, shelter is a fundamental human need. We all require a roof over our head. That is why residential property changes hands consistently - both in good times and bad.

Caution prevails

But, when times are as bad as they have been until now, with sentiment at a low point, there is inevitably a certain tendency for cautious buyers and sellers alike to hold back - to "wait and see". This results in a pent-up demand such as the homes market has recently experienced.

Looking ahead, I have little doubt that the economy - and with it the homes market - is poised to turn the corner post-election...not least because the long-awaited clampdown on corruption is now in full stride.

Meanwhile, the recent laudatory front-page feature on South Africa in The Economist, one of the world's top financial/business publications, has certainly been a good indicator for the future.